Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Have Over 30% Chance of Hitting the Moon, Report Warns

Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Have Over 30% Chance of Hitting the Moon, Report Warns

There’s a 4% chance that an asteroid, named 2024 YR4, will hit the Moon in 2032. Now, the astronomers are concerned as this probability could increase to over 30% based on upcoming observations by the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) in February 2026, New Scientist reported.

A team of scientists explained to the media outlet that there is an 80% chance of the odds of a lunar impact dropping to below 1%. Also, a 5% chance that the odds will increase to over 30%.

Next year, JWST will have narrow viewing windows on February 18 and 26 to gather crucial data on the asteroid’s trajectory and what to do about it.

The asteroid, which created a buzz in 2024 over reports that it would hit Earth, is estimated to be around 53-67 meters in diameter, roughly the size of a 10-story building.

History of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile.

Initial findings revealed that there was 1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Later, it was estimated slightly higher at 3.1%. However, NASA concluded the object poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond after further observations.

The asteroid has put astronomers on alert mode as they are mulling over how to thwart the threat, which is relatively small and won’t cause Earth-shattering damage, but hitting the Moon could still have big consequences for our planet.

Such impacts would throw up tonnes of debris, threatening satellites and also the International Space Station (ISS). The impact could trigger a spectacular meteor shower visible from Earth. A lunar impact, such as this, could create a crater up to 1 kilometre wide.

Comet Similar To Interstellar Object 3I/ATLAS Fast Moving Towards Earth

NASA and the European Space Agency are considering possible deflection scenarios, including detonating a nuclear bomb near the asteroid, but no concrete plans are in place yet.

But scientists will have to expedite their plans.

In April, a paper was published where a team of scientists said, “The destructive power of an impacting asteroid is primarily estimated by knowledge of its size. Asteroid 2024 YR4 reached a peak 2032 impact probability with Earth of 3%, motivating a desire to determine its size.”

“Owing to its infrared capabilities, JWST is uniquely suited for such assessment, especially for decameter-scale objects.”

“After 2025 May, 2024 YR4 will next enter JWST’s observing window in the first part of 2026 as a challenging target, which may be worth pursuing to determine whether a lunar impact will occur,” the team said.

In April, planetary scientist Dr Andrew Rivkin, from Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, told NASA that the available observations by JWST are “invaluable”. “This will help us determine the best approach to use during a more urgent observing program should another asteroid pose a potential impact threat in the future.” NDTV